The new SF Fed Policy Calibration Tool is designed to help construct a monetary policy path that aligns with one’s views of ...

Central banks purchase bonds and other securities with their own reserves. In doing so, they expand the supply of safe assets ...

We document evidence of a U-shaped relationship between financial development and the adjustments of foreign exchange (FX) reserve holdings in response to a U.S. interest rate increase. Countries with ...

We show, both theoretically and empirically, that tight financial conditions shift investment toward cheaper but less energy-efficient capital. In a small open-economy model with vintage capital, ...

We develop a non-parametric filter that identifies sustained directional runs in shocks to monthly inflation—a concept we define as “inflation shock momentum.” By assessing the shocks to over 100 ...

Internal migration has been cited as a key channel by which societies will adapt to climate change. We show in this paper that this process has already been happening in the United States. Over the ...

The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCEPI) is one measure of U.S. inflation, tracking the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers throughout the economy. Of all the ...

The natural rate of interest—the real short-run rate consistent with the economy at potential—is essential for central banks’ policy rate calibration. However, empirical model-based estimates ...

Using a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for bond-specific liquidity risk premia, this paper provides estimates of bond investors’ ...

Using CPS microdata, 1976-2024, we estimate trend and cyclical components of unemployment and labor force participation for 44 age-gender-education groups. We fit a parsimonious state-space model in ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. This site presents a weekly and monthly series of the proxy funds rate, following Doh and Choi (2016), Choi, Doh, Foerster, and Martinez ...