It wasn’t long ago that the U.S. economy needed a shot in the arm. Millions of Americans had lost their jobs as the country shut itself down to slow the spread … ...

The Real Story Of 2016 What reporters — and lots of data geeks, too — missed about the election, and what they’re still getting wrong.

2024 Election Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary The polls, and history, are on his side.

The Details FiveThirtyEight’s Senate, House and gubernatorial models are mostly unchanged from 2018, so the large majority of the methodological detail below will still apply. There are, however ...

Science Isn’t Broken It’s just a hell of a lot harder than we give it credit for.

2024 Republican Primary How Donald Trump’s Unusual Presidential Comeback Could Go History presents three possible paths.

If you’re one of the approximately 320 million Americans who don’t live in New York City, it might seem like its Democratic mayoral primary has gotten an outsized amount of media coverage. But ...

If the NBA is a star-driven league, the Brooklyn Nets might be the supernova of basketball. In Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden, the Nets have a pedi… ...

And that’s basically it! FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages can really be thought of as two different models: one that measures any biases resulting from the polls’ underlying data ...

How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach.

After a cacophonous two weeks of political news, a new sound has begun to emerge from Washington: the word “impeachment.” Following the news that President Trump may have tried to bully FBI ...

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